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NFL Bets: Week 6

Going into week 6 we are starting to learn a lot about each team but there are still a lot of questions as well.  Many people are even saying that besides the top two teams (New England and Green Bay in most examples) there is not a whole lot of separation from the top to the bottom anymore.  This makes the NFL a tough league to bet on.  For example, many people thought the undefeated Atlanta Falcons would easily cover the three-point spread Thursday night in New Orleans but Drew Brees came to play and Vegas took in a lot of money.  So, to try and win some money back this week, here are my picks from most confident on down.

Pick 1: Denver Broncos -4 @ Cleveland Browns
Denver has one of the best defenses in the league, if not the best and they should give McCown all sorts of trouble on Sunday.  On top of that, Cleveland has given up 20 or more points in four out of their five games this year.  With the way Denver’s defense is playing Peyton Manning doesn’t have to do too much, as long as he doesn’t turn the ball over the Broncos should be able to grab an early lead and cruise.  With this game being in Cleveland and McCown coming off the best game of his career the spread has been knocked down to only 4 points and it would be smart to take it while it’s there.

Pick 2: New England -9 @ Indianapolis Colts
We have already seen the way the Patriots have come out this year to prove everybody wrong.  They have taken on an “us against the world” attitude and refuse to let up against any team.  But those were just regular games; this is the “Deflate Gate Rematch”.  But it might as well be called the Super Bowl to the Patriots because this is the game they have had circled on their calendars since the schedule came out.  Tom Brady is going to come into this game with a huge chip on his shoulder and will look to take out all that anger he had about “Deflate Gate” on this Colts team.  Normally I would say the home team getting points on prime time is a good bet but this is not a normal circumstance.  Not to mention how poorly the Colts have looked this year but the Patriots won’t consider the “Deflate Gate” issue put to rest until they put a beating on the team that claimed they noticed deflated footballs in the AFC Championship.  Look for them to cover the 9 points easily and never let up.  This could possibly be a bigger blowout than the AFC championship itself.

Pick 3: New York Giants +5.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles
It may be desperation time on Monday night if you didn’t have a good Sunday.  This is the game where people try to make their money back.  Well this week I think there is a favorable matchup with the Giants getting 5 and a half points on the road in the prime time game.  New York has won three straight games and has put the dreadful September that seems to get them every year in the past.  Eli Manning seems to have found his groove and the defense seems to be doing enough to get the job done.  In fact, the Giants and Eagles match up pretty evenly on defense, but offensively the Giants have the 8th best passing attack compared to Philadelphia ranked at 16th and are 7th best in total points where they average 26.4 to the Eagles 23.4.  But most of all, the Eagles have not proven to be a real contender, unable to put consecutive wins together so far and even losing to the Redskins in week 4.  The Giants have won three straight and have a lot of momentum going forward, they seem to always start slow and then turn it on in the middle of the year.  With the Giants getting the 5 and a half points they are a good pick.

Sleeper Pick: Miami Dolphins +1 @ Tennessee Titans
There is not a whole lot of excitement in this game, as both teams have not looked too great this year.  But this will be Miami’s first game with new coach Dan Campbell and I think this is the perfect matchup for them.  A lot of times bringing in a new coach in the middle of the year gives a team momentum, that switch can be relieving on the players.  After everything that came out about the Joe Philbin era, I think the Dolphins will be excited to finally get out there and just play some football.  They will be going to Tennessee to face a Titans team that is 1-3 and tends to turn the ball over a lot.  If they are going to turn their year around this would be the time to do it, plus they should play hard for the new coach.  I see this game as a sleeper pick that not many people will have their eye on but can pay off for you if you decide to risk it with the Dolphins.

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